Subscribe
Logo
Tornike Surguladze
Davit Keshelava

Indexes

Home Indexes GDP Forecast
GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
See More... Close
Filter By:
Date From
Date To
January 2022 GDP Forecast | Georgian economy continues to recover from covid-19 impact, but inflation threatens stability as food prices soar by 17.7 percent
17 January 2022

Recently, Geostat revised upward its real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2021 to 9.1% (by 0.1 ppt). The real GDP growth rate amounted to 12% year-on-year for November 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP growth for the first eleven months of 2021 was 10.7%.
December 2021 GDP Forecast | Poised to see a nearly 10% GDP growth in 2021, Georgia still struggles with inflation, stagnant consumer confidence and slow tourism recovery
16 December 2021

Recently, Geostat released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2021. The Q1 and Q2 growth rates were revised upward to -4.1% (by 0.4 ppt) and downward to 28.9% (by 1 ppt) respectively. The real GDP growth rate amounted to 6.9% year-on-year for October 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP growth for the first ten months of 2021 was 10.5%.
November 2021 GDP Forecast | Georgian economic growth in 2021 driven mainly by the recovering external sector
15 November 2021

According to Geostat’s updated estimate, Q3 2021 growth rate stands at 9%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first nine months of 2021 is 11.3%.
September 2021 GDP Forecast | Inflation hurts Georgia’s GDP forecast, while recovery of remittances and real exchange rate appreciation make a positive impact
27 September 2021

Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2021, which now stands at 29.9%. The real GDP growth rate reached 9.9% year-on-year in July 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first seven months of 2021 amounted to 12.2%.
May 2021 GDP Forecast | Tourism decline was main driver of 2020 negative growth. Will it drive the recovery in 2021?
24 May 2021

Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2021. The Q1 growth stands at -4.2%, which is 1.2 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast. ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2021 stands at 12.2% -up from 11% in April. The third-quarter growth forecast currently stands at 3.3%.
Subscribe