October 2023 | Balancing acts: Georgia's trade deficit shrinks, remittances wane, and inflation holds steady, while consumer credit and money supply surge
23 October 2023

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the third and fourth quarters of 2023. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for August 2023. The estimated growth stands at 5.8%, while the average real GDP growth for January- August 2023 reached 7%.

ISET-PI predicted 9.6% and 9.3% growth for the third and fourth quarters of 2023 respectively. 

Based on August data, the annual growth in 2023 is expected to be 8.5%. This number is most likely overestimated by the model at the current point in time. This is due to the fact, that Russia’s war in Ukraine, sanctions, and large-scale migration had not had relevant analogs in the Georgian data.

In addition, the National Bank of Georgia revised its expectation for real GDP growth from 5% to 6% in 2023. According to the Monetary Policy Report, among the reasons behind the prediction’s upward revision are production factors’ rising productivity and investments along with large foreign inflows due to the ongoing geopolitical condition to stimulate domestic spending.