ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the first and second quarters of 2023. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2023. The estimated growth stands at 5.8%, while the average real GDP growth for January-February 2023 reached 7.1%.

ISET-PI predicted 2.9% and 1.8% growth for the first and second quarters of 2023 respectively. 

Based on February data, the annual growth in 2023 is expected to be 2.2% in the worst-case scenario, and 3.2% in the best-case or average long-term growth scenario. Our middle-of-the-road scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 2.6% increase in real GDP.

These numbers are underestimated by the model at the current point in time. This is due to the fact that ongoing large-scale in-migration had not had relevant analogues in the Georgian data in the past.