January 2021 GDP Forecast | GDP growth projections for 2020 currently at -5.5%, but a two month lockdown means more bad news for growth are yet to come
25 January 2021

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

The real GDP growth rate amounted to -7.7% year-on-year for November 2020. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first eleven months of 2020 was -5.9%.

Recently, Geostat has released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2020. The Q3 growth rate was -5.6% (down by 0.5 ppt relative to the forecast).

Thus, the growth forecast for Q4 of 2020 was revised downward to -5.2%. ISET-PI’s second forecast for Q1 of 2021 puts GDP growth at -3.5% (1.9 ppts lower than our previous prediction).

Based on Novembers’s data, we expect annual growth in 2020 to be -5.5%, which is 0.9 percentage points lower than the previous prediction.