February 2024 | Currency gains, trade contraction, and remittance normalization: key drivers of Georgia's revised 2024 GDP forecast
26 February 2024

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the first and second quarters of 2024. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for December 2023. The estimated growth stands at 8.3%, while the average annual real GDP growth reached 7%.

Due to a recent update in Geostat's GDP calculation methodology in December, revised growth rates show an upward trend compared to the previous month's figures. Consequently, our own forecast for GDP growth has been adjusted upwards to reflect this change.

ISET-PI forecasts Georgia's economy to grow by 10.4% and 10.1% in the first and second quarters of 2024, respectively.

Based on December data, the annual growth in 2024 is expected to be 7.8% in the worst-case scenario, and 9.4% in the best-case or an average long-term growth scenario. Our middle-of-the-road scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts an 8.9% increase in real GDP.

It is important to note that the current forecast might be more optimistic than the official estimates provided by government institutions, like the National Bank of Georgia's 5% growth prediction for 2024. The annual growth scenarios may not fully reflect potential future developments.